Putting a number on Trump’s risk

The news that Mr Trump tested positive for Covid-19 has generated a lot of discussions concerning his mortality risk. Although his private doctor said that the president’s health status was ‘excellent’, newspapers pundits painted a rather pessimistic scenario. Well, I have done some risk calculations, and my results suggest that the president should be fine.

Photo from https://abcnews.go.com

In a New York Times article, some doctors pointed out that being 74 years old and overweight, Mr Trump faces “extra risk” [1]. Some Australian doctors were also concerned that Mr Trump’s health profile would put him in the higher risk bracket from Covid-19 mortality [2]. However, these opinions were mostly qualitative, and none of the experts could provide a quantitative risk assessment for Mr Trump.

OK, first let’s recap Mr Trump’s epidemiologic and clinical profile. He is a 74 years old man, 192 cm tall , and weighed 110.7 kg. So, his body mass index is roughly 30, which is classified as “obese”. According to a presidential health report, he also had a history of hypertension and hypercholesterolemia but this has been controlled [3]. Based on this profile, Mr Trump is indeed at high risk of Covid-19 mortality.

Of course, we are talking about population risk here. We are more specifically talking about people like Mr…